I’ve already looked at mid-round WRs to target and undrafted wide receivers to keep an eye on, so let’s complete the trifecta with wideouts you should target in the double-digit rounds of fantasy football drafts.
With late-round wide receivers, we want to target wide receivers with a clear path to opportunity, as volume is more predictable than efficiency on a year-to-year basis and has a stronger correlation to fantasy production. With that in mind, here are five wide receivers I’m targeting in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts.
Pierre Garcon – San Francisco 49ers
Pierre Garcon’s ADP is still in the ninth round, but the recent hype about Marquise Goodwin has Garcon spiraling toward the double-digit rounds at a terrifying pace. Over the last few weeks, Goodwin’s ADP has moved into the fifth round while Garcon’s torpedoes downward. Goodwin totaled 34 receptions for 500 yards and two touchdowns over the final seven games of last season, but I prefer Garcon over Goodwin in a vacuum.
Garcon averaged 8.4 targets per game last year, a 134-target pace over a full season. 134 targets would have placed 12th in the NFL last year. Through the first half of 2017, Garcon was the WR26 in PPR formats with 50 receptions for 400 yards and zero touchdowns. In Scott Barrett’s Actual Opportunity stat, which measures how many fantasy points the average player would score with any given player’s opportunity, Garcon ranked 19th among wide receivers.
With Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Goodwin averaged 7.3 targets per game – one target per game fewer than Garcon – and that’s with Garcon sidelined. Furthermore, Goodwin has a lengthy injury history, including six documented concussions since 2014. In his five seasons in the NFL, Goodwin has played in 55 out of 80 possible regular season games. For reference, Garcon has played in 140 of 160 possible regular season games. Garcon missed the second half of last season with a neck injury, but he has practiced all offseason, so Goodwin’s injury history scares me more than Garcon’s.
Goodwin’s speed and splash play ability mean he will probably be the more efficient receiver, but volume is more predictable than efficiency for fantasy purposes and more correlated to fantasy production. There are question marks about volume for both players: how will Goodwin’s breakout impact Garcon’s usage, and how will a healthy Garcon affect Goodwin’s status as Garoppolo’s No. 1 target? We don’t know the answers yet, so I’m siding with the player with five years of top 36 positional finishes under his belt over the one with seven games of electrifying production, especially with Goodwin’s lengthy injury history. Based off of last year’s volume and Garcon’s consistent career production, he looks like a value in the ninth round of fantasy football drafts.
Kenny Stills – Miami Dolphins
Perhaps the most underappreciated player in fantasy football, Stills is being drafted as the WR48 even though he finished as the WR28 in PPR formats last year. Miami has more than 200 vacated targets following the departures of Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas. Stills already had more than 100 targets last year, and now Landry and his 142.5 targets per year are in Cleveland. The Dolphins signed Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson in free agency and drafted Penn State tight end Mike Gesicki in the second round of the NFL Draft, but Stills is clearly ahead of them on the target totem pole.
DeVante Parker will start alongside Stills when healthy, but he is dealing with a hand injury right now and his status for the beginning of the season is up in the air. Even with Parker in the lineup, Stills has been the more productive receiver over the last few seasons, besting Parker in both receiving yards and touchdowns since he joined the Dolphins prior to the 2015 campaign.
As the primary receiver in an offense with more than 200 vacated targets, Stills is a target at his eleventh-round ADP. In standard leagues, he’s an even better target due to his deep threat style of play (16.1 yards per reception over his career), but he’s still a value in PPR formats.
Tyler Lockett – Seattle Seahawks
Following the departures of Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson, the Seahawks have 176 vacated targets from last year. Not only does Tyler Lockett step into the No. 2 WR role in the Seattle offense, he is now the No. 2 option in the entire passing game.
Outside of Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks lack proven pass-catchers, so Lockett is in line for a significant increase in targets in 2018. Wilson has supported multiple fantasy-relevant pass-catchers in the past – last year, Baldwin, Graham, and Richardson were all contributors – so Lockett has upside at his WR56 price tag. In the twelfth round, the opportunity cost of picking Lockett is relatively low, but he could be a steal as the No. 2 option in an elite passing offense.
Christian Kirk – Arizona Cardinals
While other rookie wide receivers – DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, and Anthony Miller – are generating national buzz, Christian Kirk has quietly ascended the Cardinals wide receiver depth chart. Larry Fitzgerald has the No. 1 wide receiver spot locked up, but only Chad Williams, Brice Butler, and JJ Nelson stand between Kirk and the No. 2 wide receiver role in the Arizona offense.
David Johnson and Fitz headline the offense, but there’s no reason Kirk can’t become fantasy-relevant if he manages to secure the No. 2 job. Considering the Cardinals invested a second-round pick in him this year, he is the favorite for the position, especially considering head coach Steve Wilks told media members that Kirk has “created some separation” for the role. Johnson and Fitz are the only two players in the Arizona offense worth starting on a weekly basis, but Kirk has spot start potential at his fourteenth-round ADP.
Mike Wallace – Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Wallace quietly posted back-to-back top 40 WR seasons as a Baltimore Raven, finishing as the WR22 in 2016 and WR38 in 2017. Wallace signed with the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, joining a crowded wide receiver group that already features Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor.
As the No. 3 receiver, Wallace’s upside is limited when Jeffery and Agholor are healthy, but neither have a bill of clean health at the moment. Jeffery has struggled with a shoulder injury this offseason, and there has been speculation that he could start the year on the PUP list, keeping him out for at least the first six games of the year. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson squashed that rumor, but the point remains that Jeffery is banged up right now. Agholor missed time earlier this offseason, but he is expected to play Week 1.
If either Jeffery or Agholor miss time, Wallace would assume a starting receiver role on an elite offense. Wallace can still make an impact as the No. 3 receiver though. The Eagles ran 11 personnel – a 3WR set – 65 percent of the time last year, meaning Wallace will be on the field most of the time regardless of the health of the wideouts in front of him. In best ball formats, Wallace’s speed makes him an even better option, as he is a threat to take one to the house on any given play. At his FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of WR77, Wallace is a value and should be targeted in the final round of seasonal leagues.
No Comment! Be the first one.