Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article. Please be on the lookout for that in the future. This week’s Twitter Question of the Week comes from @Tommy_t_256 asking about Gus Edwards’ usage in Week 12. The answer will be at the bottom of this article.
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, or Kyler Murray.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 12 — Quarterback
Start – Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) @BUF
Hebert is coming into this game in excellent form and has at least two touchdowns in every game since Week 4. He currently averages 25.4-FPPG and he is also the seventh-best fantasy quarterback overall.
As for his opponent, Buffalo is consistently allowing points to opposing quarterbacks. They currently surrender an average 21.2-FPPG to the quarterback position, which is fifth-worst in the NFL. When facing off against Buffalo you always know that their defense can surrender a ton of fantasy points. And when you get a quarterback like Justin Herbert, it becomes a lock for your fantasy team.
Looking at the game projection, this game carries a 53.5u with Buffalo being -5.5 favorites. Since I am not a professional sports better, I can give you some unofficial advice: bet the Chargers to cover. The reason for this is because this game features two heavy-duty offenses coupled with defenses that can give up points. In other words, this game has the making for a shootout and that is precisely what we want to target for fantasy.
Make sure Herbert is locked into your starting lineup in Week 12.
Start – Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) vs LV
At home and indoors, this is the matchup you want to play Matt Ryan. Yes, even despite probably not having Julio Jones, you should lock him into your lineup this week. Betting lines have not been concerned with Jones’ impending absence, thus neither should you. We know this because even with Jones likely to miss, this game still has a healthy 55u.
Coming in as the ninth friendliest team to opposing fantasy quarterbacks, the Raiders are giving up 20.6-FPPG. This is part of the reason that Las Vegas also allows the fifth-most passing yards on a per-game basis, 273.6. Atlanta loves to attack teams through the air and I don’t think the Raiders’ pass-defense has the ability to shut down Atlanta. You can easily see Calvin Ridley torching this secondary and that only bodes well for Ryan.
Despite the concerns with Jones, you should be playing Matt Ryan in Week 12 against a Raiders defense that is not known to stop the pass-game.
Sit – Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT) vs BAL – Thursday Game
During their Week 8 matchup, Roethlisberger was able to muster up 15.3-fantasy points across 182 passing yards and two touchdowns. It will likely be more of the same in Week 12 and that is because Baltimore caps the opposing quarterbacks’ upside. This is partly because of their defense, their blitz rate, and also their ability to rush and possess the ball for long periods of time on offense.
Baltimore is limiting their quarterback opponents to the tune of 18.6-FPPG which is 14th-best in the league. Overall, Baltimore simply does not allow much in terms of passing yards against. Through this point of the season, they are giving up an average of 217 passing yards per game. Defensively they will get after the quarterback and according to PFF, Baltimore created 10 pressures the last time these two teams faced off. When facing pressure, Roethlisberger’s Passer Rating sinks from 100-plus, to 80.8.
When a game gets hit with a 44.5u, it is not a great time to target pocket quarterbacks like Roethlisberger. Leave Big Ben on the bench in Week 12.
Start-Sit Week 12 — Running Back
Start – DeAndre Swift (RB, DET) vs HOU – Thursday Game
With a 51.5u, this game is likely to feature quite a bit of points – especially since it is coupled with a tight -3 spread favoring Houston. While Swift was unable to go in Week 11, he has an opportunity to continue his recent run of success against Houston at home.
In an average game, Houston allows 159.3 rushing yards which is easily the most yards allowed in the NFL. Houston continuously get smashed by their opposing running backs and have allowed 26.2-FPPG to the position, second-most.
Swift is seeing an improved snap-share as well, getting 60-percent or more snaps in two of his last three games. He received 73-percent of the snaps in Week 10 when he exploded for 149 total yards and one touchdown. The rookie gives you a decent floor with his passing game work and his rushing attempts. His efficiency has been there as well and he has recorded a double-digit fantasy finish in five of his last six games.
Swift can be relied on for fantasy managers on Turkey Day. Get him into your lineup and make sure he is not in the flex-position since he is playing on Thursday.
Start – Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) @JAC
Since returning from his injury Nick Chubb has back-to-back 100-yard games on the ground and has broke off a 50-yard run in each contest. Additionally, he was able to punch in one touchdown. This guy has not missed a beat and the Browns will continue to feed him 20 times every game, if they can.
Jacksonville is allowing running backs to get an average of 20.5-FPPG which is the seventh-most. When stopping the run, they are the ninth-worst defense and have allowed 129.1 rushing yards per game. With how well Cleveland runs the ball, Chubb is set up for a huge day.
Chubb is a reliable and great option for fantasy managers this week. While he doesn’t always carry the upside that we desire, his consistent usage will set him up to be a backend RB1 or fringe RB2.
Sit – Melvin Gordon (RB, DEN) vs NO
The Saints are kings against opposing running backs this year. To this point in the season, they are only allowing an average of 12.5-FPPG to opposing running backs and that is the best in the NFL. Over their last three games they have only surrendered 36.3 rushing yards per game and for the entire season, 74.3 yards per game which is first-best and second-best respectively.
Gordon destroyed the Dolphins in his previous matchup, but to be frank that is exactly how you beat the Dolphins (and Denver almost did). This week will feature the Saints and that is not a group you attack with the run. Despite this, Gordon will get his share of carries in his timeshare with Phillip Lindsay. Prior to his Week 11 smash-effort, Gordon finished with 7.7, 3.2 and 4.6 fantasy points, respectively.
Any time the New Orleans Saints line up against you, running the ball instantly becomes difficult. With a timeshare situation, Gordon is not a player to chase for fantasy points. Leave him on your bench in Week 12.
Start-Sit Week 12 — Wide Receiver
Will Fuller (WR, HOU) @Det – Thursday Game
Fuller has had a tough go-around over the last two weeks and has faced brutal weather conditions in Cleveland and elite shadow-coverage from Stephon Gilmore of the Patriots. Outside of those two weeks, he has been extremely reliable for a fantasy wide receiver, gobbling up a touchdown in every week from Weeks 3-through-9. Furthermore, he has seen at least five targets and five receptions in four of his last five games. And he is the go-to target for Deshaun Watson who has looked unbelievable since Week 4.
The over-under for this game also indicates a high-scoring affair that could turn into a shootout. Currently, the over-under sits at 51.5 with Houston being -3 favorites. Detroit is not great at defending pass catchers this year and over their last three games, they have allowed 281.7 passing yards. For fantasy, they typically allow 24.2-FPPG to the position and that is middle of the road when evaluating the league.
Start Fuller up in a great matchup for him to thrive in. This game will be indoors too, which is great for a team like Houston who also plays indoors.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA) @PHI
Consistency is always the biggest thing with Lockett. We saw 17.2-fantasy points from him in Week 11 and in Week 12, he has a great opportunity to continue that success. Last week is similar to this week for Lockett, meaning that D.K. Metcalf will likely draw the shadow-coverage from Darius Slay which will allow Lockett room to operate.
The Eagles’ defense has been respectable against the pass and though they are a solid unit, quarterback Carson Wentz has practically gifted the ball to opposing teams via turnovers, which allows for short fields and easy touchdowns. If Russell Wilson gets multiple opportunities with a shortened field, it could be a huge day for Seattle and Lockett.
Start Lockett up and expect a solid outing at the least, with the chance of a 20-plus point effort.
Sit – Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) vs NYG
You don’t need much analysis to understand why this is a bad play this week. With a new quarterback, we have no idea how well this offense will function or if Higgins will continue to be the target monster that he has been.
Even if the matchup was good, which it is not since he is likely to get James Bradbury shadow-coverage, this game only carries a 43u with the Giants – yes, the New York Giants – favored by -6. Anytime you see a large spread favoring a bad team, like New York, you definitely want to run in the opposite direction. Cincinnati was not good to begin with and it will only look uglier, which is evident in the game-line this week.
At the least, you should be evaluating Higgins this week instead of playing him. Place him onto your bench and be willing to accept whatever happens because the risks far outweigh the rewards.
Start-Sit Week 12 — Tight End
Start – Darren Waller (TE, LV) @ATL
If you were thinking about looking elsewhere at tight end, do not because Waller’s opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, are giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position at 11-FPPG.
Passing attacks in general have been dominating this Falcons’ secondary and they have allowed the second-most passing yards on a per-game basis, which is 300.3 yards. Waller is always the go-to option for quarterback Derek Carr and there is no reason that Waller shouldn’t succeed.
Like a lot of tight ends, he needs a touchdown to smash his value for the week but with a 55u, Las Vegas favored at -3, there should be plenty of points to go around. Start Waller up in your tight end spot and expect a great effort and TE1 finish.
Start – Evan Engram (TE, NYG) @CIN
Cincinnati is friendly to opposing tight ends and they are giving up 9.7-FPPG to the position. Overall as a defense, they have surrendered 254.7 passing yards per game which is ninth-worst.
Prior to his Week 10 dud, Engram had seen three straight weeks of at least nine targets and five or more receptions. I expect similar usage to come to fruition against Cincinnati. Engram also gets a rushing carry here and there, which only adds to his floor (though most tight ends’ floor is 0).
With a 43u, this game projects to be slow-paced and likely ugly for the Bengals since they are starting a new quarterback after Joe Burrow was shelved with a knee injury. Slow games tend to favor tight ends more than face-paced, and the way the Giants’ defense has played we can reasonably expect one or two shots with short field position due to Cincinnati turnovers.
Get Engram into your lineups for Week 12, he is a TE1 option and can easily thrive in this match up.
Sit – Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR) vs SF
Another week and another opportunity to have little trust in Tyler Higbee. It has not been good for the former fourth-round selection this year, reaching double-digit fantasy points in only a single game which was in Week 2.
This week he will be running routes against the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco suppresses opposing tight ends and has only allowed 4.7-FPPG this season. Overall, the 49ers have defended the pass well and are giving up 208.9 passing yards per game this season.
Sit Higbee in Week 12. His match up is bad and frankly he has not gotten it done since Week 2.
Twitter QOTW:
@Tommy_t_256 asks: Should we trust Gus Edwards this week? Well, should we trust the Ravens will give him 15+ carries vs. Pittsburgh?
Trust? That is a hard word to put on paper with Edwards against the best rush defense in the league. With that said, this is the Baltimore Ravens and they are not a typical team that you defend simply because of Lamar Jacksons’ rushing ability.
It would not surprise me if there was another back getting runs with Edwards, although I would not expect a three-back committee. I also would expect Edwards to get the bulk of the work.
If this game stays competitive, I can easily see Edwards getting 15-plus opportunities. With how poor this offense has looked of late, staying competitive could be tough. Edwards should not be forced into lineups this week due to the questions around his usage and the defense that he is running up against. Anything can happen in these divisional games though, and I do expect a close game.
