Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article. This week the two selections were: @finished1003 and @charlespattersn.
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Kelce, or Lamar Jackson.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Week 4 Start/Sit — Quarterback
Start – Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
The first pick of the 2020 NFL draft seemingly has a solid floor this season. So far his lowest fantasy showing has been 16 points which he did in Week 1. Every week since then, he has scored no less than 20-plus fantasy points.
One thing that stuck out about Burrow is his red-zone passing attempts, which is the third-most in the NFL. Obviously, more passing attempts near the goal line equal touchdowns and fantasy points. Combine this with the fact that Jacksonville is the sixth-most generous team against the quarterback position and currently gives up an average of 22.8 fantasy points per game.
The projected game total sits at 49 points, which is solid but far from the highest on the slate. This also could turn into a back-and-forth shootout, but that game-script will have to be ignited from the Jacksonville side. Nevertheless, both quarterbacks in this game can sling it if necessary and that always creates the potential for tons of fantasy points.
Burrow can certainly light this defense up and get a 25-point week under his belt. Start Burrow with confidence.
Start – Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan could not overcome the injuries to his receiving core in Week 3 and because of that, he posted his worst fantasy effort in 2020.
Looking for a Week 4 bounce back, Ryan comes in with the highest projected game-total on the slate (56.5 O/U). This Falcons team is good at one thing and that is scoring points. Their opponent, the Green Bay Packers, also comes in as an offensive juggernaut which only sets this game up for fantasy gold. The Packers are currently giving up 20.9 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. But to be quite honest, that stat means little because if the Atlanta Falcons want to win this game they are going to have to put up points because their defense cannot stop anyone.
The best way Atlanta can score points is by throwing the football and relying on Ryan’s ability. If Julio Jones is out you should have slightly lower expectations but despite this, Ryan should be solid.
Sit – Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Man, could 2020 get any rougher for Carson Wentz? He has battled inaccuracy, offensive line injuries, and even injuries to his receivers. Now as we head into Week 4, the media has officially begun to ask if a possible benching is on the horizon.
Anytime you have stake in a quarterback, it most certainly is bad when the media begins the “benching” narrative. While Wentz’s head coach reassured the press that he will remain the starting quarterback, you can’t really expect a head coach to do anything but try and instill confidence in Wentz (deny the narrative to the media). Honestly its highly unlikely we see the benching, but they did draft Jalen Hurts and that means something.
As for Wentz’s fantasy results in 2020, he combined for 25.3 fantasy points in the first two weeks. Then in Week 3, he barely salvaged a 21.5 fantasy effort because the game was extended into overtime. Sadly, I expect more of the same for Wentz and the Eagles. Their match up, which isn’t really important at this point, will be against the 49ers and they have limited quarterbacks to 19.1 fantasy points per game.
Wentz is a quarterback that you need to make an in-season adjustments for, in terms of expectations. Right now he is a streamer at best. His receiving core is still in shambles and he has not shown the ability to be consistently good and that is why I will avoid him in this game.
Week 4 Start/Sit — Running Back
Start – Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI)
Another week, another must-start against Carolina, and this time it comes for Kenyan Drake. Unfortunately for Drake, he has not lived up to his 2020 preseason hype, however, this Week 4 matchup should set the stage for Drake’s ceiling game.
The biggest reason for Drake’s let-down this season is the lack of touchdowns and that is partly due to Kyler Murray’s new running tendency inside the red zone. But honestly, Drake’s usage seems to show positive regression is on the horizon. Up to this point he has received no less than 18 touches in a game. Luckily the Carolina Panthers roll in as the second-worst team at defending against running backs. Arizona also enters as favorites, which feeds the narrative that Drake could get some opportunities to run out the clock. Plus, if he gets 18 touches he only needs to break one-off for him to put up a couple of crooked numbers against your fantasy opponent.
With this game likely being a high scoring affair (52.5 over-under) Drake is a must start and could have his first big game of 2020.
Start – James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Last week James Robinson proved something invaluable in fantasy and that is his ability to be game-script proof (meaning: always fantasy-relevant no matter how the game unfolds). His ability to be game-script proof derived from 11 carries for 46 rushing yards while adding six receptions, 83 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Keep in mind that the Jags were practically dominated by the Dolphins in that Week 3 game, and Robinson’s performance was a one-week sample size for this amount of volume.
In Week 4 the rookie running back will face off against the Bengals. Through the 2020 season, Cincinnati has given up 28.3 fantasy points per game to the running back position, fifth highest in the league. The upside of this play comes from a game-flow that features two young quarterbacks who can score points. And as Robinson showed, he can score through the air and on the ground. The touchdown equity could be the best part of Robinson this week. With a young quarterback who struggled recently, the Jags’ coaching staff could try and utilize Robinson as the go-to red-zone option. By doing this, it could possibly alleviate some pressure from their sophomore quarterback.
Robinson is an excellent PPR-play and a solid all-format play this week. The lack of defense on both sides should excite fantasy managers about Robinson’s ceiling.
Sit – Devonta Freeman (RB, NYG)
Week 3 was not all that great for the new signee, but one positive note that came from his usage is that he should be the lead dog. But the real question is how much of a committee will this backfield be?
As Week 4 approaches, Freeman makes for an easy sit this week for a multitude of reasons. Clearly, he will be working his way into game-shape, something most of the league is still doing as well. As alluded to earlier, I expect this to be some form of committee, and if it is a true committee that will make Freeman practically unplayable. Running backs get a lot of their value when their team has the lead and they want to close out the game. The most this Giants’ offense has scored is 16 points in a game, so the fireworks are not likely.
Which leads us to New York’s matchup against the Rams. Frankly, it’s farfetched to think this Giants team can get in front and pull off a win, but stranger things have happened in the NFL. The Rams are middle of the road when it comes to defense against the running back position, averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game, but keep in mind they faced three great fantasy running backs this season: Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary.
There is just too much risk with Freeman in Week 4. Freeman is a piece that likely won’t get you a ton of points over the 2020 season, but this week I would avoid him nearly at all costs – deep league consideration only.
Week 4 Start/Sit — Wide Receiver
Start – DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
DeVante Parker enters Week 4 facing the Seattle Seahawks, who up to this point have given up the most fantasy points per game against wide receivers. Just to get a glimpse of the number of points that is, currently it sits at 60.5 fantasy points per game. Any time you have a player with the upside that Parker carries he becomes a near auto-start when the opposing defense is Seattle.
Looking at the projected game-script you can see that this game features a 54.5 over-under with Seattle being 6.5-point favorites. This should mean one thing to you, this game could turn into a shootout easily. You know how good Russell Wilson is, but the gunslinger Ryan FitzMagic comes into town and like Wilson, he can sling it around the yard too (certainly not as consistent). The bottom line is that Miami is going to have to put up points against Seattle, which creates a chance for tons of lead changes and big plays. The biggest worry is if Fitzpatrick comes out flat or the offense turns the ball over.
With Parker being the playmaker he is, inside of a game environment that we will likely see, you have a chance to see a ceiling game from the former Louisville wideout.
Start – Will Fuller V (WR, HOU) – COULD POTENTIALLY BE POSTPONED
After posting a goose egg in Week 2 likely due to injury, Will Fuller found his way back into fantasy relevancy. Heading into Week 4, Fuller could not be in a better spot. Currently, the Texans are scheduled to face off against the Vikings, barring any COVID-19 setbacks, and for a player like Fuller, it could equal fantasy gold.
If you read this article every week, you know that Minnesota is going to be a bad secondary and you should be targeting them as fantasy managers. The reason for this is because they currently have given up 39.4 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, fourth-most in the league. One risk that I see from this game is a scenario where Houston gets out in front early and the Vikings struggle to keep up, something that has been common for them in 2020. However, this scenario does seem less likely after Minnesota’s showing last week.
On paper, Fuller comes in with a chance to cash in on a ceiling game. If he gets anywhere near his ceiling, he alone could be the reason you win your Week 4 match up, so start him up.
Sit – Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
As a fantasy manager, you have been disappointed with the results Mike Williams has posted. Finishing as the wide receiver 38, 108, and 95, respectively, through three weeks of the season will certainly do that and in Week 4 I expect more of the same.
We’ll start with the low projected game-script which features a 43-point over-under, with Tampa Bay being favorited by a touchdown (that is a lot for the NFL by the way). Surely this line has to do with rookie Justin Herbert behind center. Tampa Bay is no slouch on defense and has tons of veterans who can exploit rookie tendencies. Currently, the Buccaneers allow 14.1 fantasy points to the quarterback position, which quickly can spill over and affect receivers. You also have to understand that Keenan Allen absorbed 19 targets last week, so Herbert could be getting a mild case of tunnel vision with his receivers. Further, Williams seems to be the third read after Allen and Hunter Henry.
This is also a west coast team traveling to the east coast, where they will be playing in the noon-slate. Historically speaking, the travel schedule will likely affect the Chargers because we have seen it many times before. How much it will affect them is yet to be seen. The bottom line is that Mike Williams cannot be trusted and should be benched in 12-team leagues and less.
Week 4 Start/Sit — Tight End
Start – T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
So far in 2020, T.J. Hockenson has never finished outside of the top-20 at his position. In the aforementioned time period, Hockenson has also had no less than four targets, and last week against Arizona he garnered seven total targets. Clearly, he is a focal point of this offense, which gives him a nice baseline.
In Week 4 he will go up against the New Orleans Saints, who is the friendliest defense against opposing tight ends and have given up 22.4 fantasy points per game on average. Contrary to New Orleans’ sloppy defense against tight ends, they happen to be the ninth-best team in fantasy at defending against wide receivers. This is particularly interesting because if this trend shows on Sunday, it could easily make Stafford rely more on Hockenson.
Detroit is also not favored in this game and that also sets up a projected game script that forces Detroit to throw the ball, since they would be trailing. And we know one thing about Stafford, he can sling it with the best. As for Hockenson, you should really like his floor and usage with Detroit and this week he certainly possesses upside. He should be started over players like Noah Fant, Hunter Henry and Hayden Hurst (unless Julio Jones and/or Russel Gage are out).
Start – Darren Waller (TE, LV)
His lackluster showing in Week 3 against New England was predicted around the industry but even if you saw it coming, you likely had no one to pivot to which forced your reliance on Waller.
You will be relieved to know that in Week 4 he is facing the Bills, who have allowed an average of 13.3 fantasy points to tight ends through three weeks. Buffalo is the 10th-worst defense against tight ends and that pairs well with an over-under of 52 points, a line that has already moved 2.5 points higher since opening. This line makes sense because Buffalo has been an offensive juggernaut this season, while the Raiders have shown improvement on the offensive side as well. Anytime you can find a game total that is 50-plus projected points, it can easily end in a shootout.
Another game scenario that could unfold is that the Bills get out in front early against the Raiders, which could make Las Vegas depend more on the pass. Nevertheless, Waller is a target monster and possesses one of the highest tight-end floors in fantasy, week-to-week. In Week 4, it will be a great opportunity for Waller to get right and provide equity for his fantasy managers once again.
Sit – Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
So far in 2020 Engram has been a disappointing pick compared to the draft capital used to roster him. Through three weeks he has finished as the tight end 37, 15, and 36 respectively. This goes deeper than just Engram’s ability, this offense has serious issues right now. If you need evidence of this offense stalling you needn’t look further than last week when they mustered up nine points against a 49ers’ defense that was decimated by injuries. The other part of this is Daniel Jones, who just cannot stop turning the ball over (two turnovers a week on average).
Engram will have better days, perhaps in weeks five, six, and seven when they face less difficult matchups against the tight end position. This week going against the Rams you should be looking elsewhere in 10-team leagues. In 12-team leagues and higher, you should pivot if you have the right player to swap out. Commonly rostered players you should like over Engram are Mike Gesicki, T.J. Hockenson, Hunter Henry, and Hayden Hurts.
Online Questions of the Week (submitted via Twitter)
I am going to assume you mean David Johnson here, who should definitely be locked in as a starter this week (he was nearly on this column). He has a terrific matchup this week against a weak Vikings’ defense. Only thing is to monitor the issues around COVID-19 as this game’s start potentially could be altered. After that, I would lean Jeff Wilson’s way since Jerick McKinnon is banged up, especially if Raheem Mostert misses (Tevin Coleman will not be playing). Wilson has touchdown upside every weak, as you saw last week, and the history of this extends into 2019. When he plays he seemingly gets extremely valuable carries and once Coleman is back he will likely be a healthy scratch, meaning use him while you can.
Hyde would be my third pick given Chris Carson’s injury, although I expect Seattle to let Russell Wilson control that game, Hyde certainly has potential for upside. Byron Scott is the back to drop out of this bunch if you wish to do so. Given your league’s size, it could be tough to find someone better, barring injury.
Having Zach Ertz and Mark Andrews on a team makes for a tough call when it comes to your flex options. Ertz would likely be the guy I would have told you to bench if this was Week 3, but now that Dallas Goedert is out for several weeks, coupled with the plethora of receivers injured, Ertz is a clear first-read target for Carson Wentz. I love Justin Jefferson against Houston but rookies are tough to count on, especially right after their first breakout game.
That is the reason I would lean Mark Andrews as your second pick. He had a tough couple of weeks but the targets and usage are there since he is the most trusted receiver for Lamar Jackson. Andrews faces Washington this week, so he does have some blowout risks which hurts his upside. Jerick McKinnon is only in play if Raheem Mostert is inactive, due to his usage history with Mostert involved. I would not consider Jerry Jeudy due to the quarterback uncertainty in Denver and Brandin Cooks just has not gotten it done compared to Ertz or Andrews.
