Week 1 is done.
We have learned some things about teams, and yet not everything has been revealed. Teams like the 49ers with new quarterbacks tend to be more conservative. Teams looking to make a deep playoff push like the Packers and the Rams can come out looking rusty. There’s a lot we still need to see from these teams as the season gains momentum. Don’t write them off yet.
Teams that heard all offseason that they’re going to be bad (and will probably end up with a top-10 draft pick) like Chicago, Atlanta, Houston, and the New York Football Giants came out strong. Why not? Everyone believes you’re going to be an easy win, and there’s a human emotion in this game known as pride. Teams like these can burst out the gate. We’ll have to see where they end up.
Then there are teams that just look bad and you didn’t have much faith in them in the offseason. You probably should bail now. The New England Patriots got rocked by a division rival and their offense may end up as one of the worst in the league. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense has no teeth without a pass rush and you may be able to throw on them all season long.
On the flip side, the Bills and the Chiefs look ready to roll opponents all season. There will be lags here and there midseason, but it looks like they can be 13+ win teams.
Most of the teams are still question marks. They will develop throughout the season, for good or for bad. This is where you strike gold with fantasy. There’s an underlying narrative for each team. There are players who don’t perform as well as they should and lose their job either to backups or by trade.
Look at what the teams want to do, what their weakness is, and their strengths. Unless they’re outright tanking (and thus far it doesn’t look like anyone is) they all have one common goal: to win. Figure out what helps them along that path, and you can make the right waiver pickups, streamers, and start/sit decisions.
Just like the rest of the teams with question marks so is your team. No matter how much you won or lost. It’s still a work in progress. The main goal is the same: win.
This starts with looking at both your league and your team as rationally as possible. This is easier said than done. Fantasy is an emotional game. Emotions are the best part of what happens on Sunday. Let the week be your time to reflect, reassess and figure out how to attack for the week going forward.
The last thing you can do is put your blinders on and believe everything is going to be okay. Don’t be Jerry Jones and tell yourself Dak will be right back! Rose-colored glasses can only get you so far. Just ask Seahawks fans last year.
Part of being rational is looking at players that you would never have imagined during the preseason. You’ll find a few of them here. You may find players you love on the sit list.
At the end of the day, your lineup is your call. Just know that in the early stages of the season there are more questions than answers. Every team is still in the playoff hunt, even the New England Patriots. There’s a lot that must work itself out in September, and we fantasy players must be open as teams whose coaches could give two shits about fantasy football attempt to answer the question continually being asked:
How do I win the upcoming week?
This should be the question you ask as well:
How do I win?
Let’s start by answering some questions.
Fantasy football Week 2 start ’em
Quarterbacks to start in Week 2
Carson Wentz, QB, Washington Commanders
I am going back to the well with Carson Wentz. He was a great stream for those who dared last week, and I think he’ll have another good game against Detroit. He has some talented weapons who excel with the ball in their hands, and we just saw Philadelphia run up the score against the Lions last week.
An added plus is that Carson is good for at least two turnovers. Yes, this means you’ll receive negative points, but Wentz is good to make up those points and more when he gets the ball back. He has to. Washington’s defense is not where it was two years ago, and so when Wentz does turn the ball over, more than likely the Lions will score. Thus the impetus behind Wentz needing to make up for lost points. It’s as if he’s thinking of you the entire time.
Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
This is one of the highest over/unders of the week, and we know the Cardinals can be carved up through the air. Just as any Chiefs fan. In fact, no need to ask them. They’ll offer it unsolicited. Yes, Dustin, I got your text about how many 5+ TD games Mahomes has thrown in his career.
Carr is not going to throw for 5 touchdowns, but I can see 2 or 3 more than doable to go along with 300+ yards. The Cardinals are going to do whatever they can to push the ball down the field and the Raiders have the talent to answer.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
I should’ve seen week 1 Aaron Rodgers coming. All the signs were there. This is what he tends to do. Week 1 last year he went for 133-0-2 against the Saints, and he posted a similar line last week against Minnesota. The good news? Last year he responded with a 255-4-0 game against a division rival. This year he gets the Bears, an organization he has in his investment portfolio, and it’s a prime-time game. Expect to see many fist pumps.
Running backs to start in Week 1
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns
They’re going to split the snaps like last two years, and like last two years—when they were both healthy—it really didn’t matter. They’re both going to be great. You may have some hesitation because the Jets held the Ravens to 63 yards last week, and certainly, that line made me do a double take.
Keep in mind the Jets were terrible against the run last year. They were 29th in allowed yards and dead last in allowed rushing touchdowns. It’s doubtful they improved that much. For all we laud Baltimore on their rushing, keep in mind they rolled out Kenyan Drake and Mike Davis. I expect this duo to do much better.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
The first article I wrote this summer was on Saquon Barkley. He had two down years, and so I went back and watched some of his film and found myself in absolute awe of his talent. He truly jumped off the screen, and defenders were left to catch up.
I also explored teams that acquired an offensive-minded head coach after finishing in the bottom five in total offenses and found that, on average the past seven years, those teams jumped 19 spots in total points scored the following season. Couple that with all the bad juju surrounding Giants wide receivers, and one could see the true centerpiece of the offense had to be Saquon.
And Week 1 he went off for 194 total yards, a touchdown, and sealed the win with a two-point conversation.
Thank you for the applause.
Thank you.
You’re too kind.
What I am saying here is that last week was not a fluke. The past two years were. Remember, he was injured for a majority of them. Now he gets to take on a Panthers defense that just allowed 217 yards and two scores on the ground last week. Sign me up.
Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were embarrassed last week, and when great, prideful teams get embarrassed they respond. I expect the Rams to beat up on last year’s 27th-ranked rushing defense, and as they do, they will turn to the back who was on the field for 82% of snaps and did not earn the ire of Sean McVay.
This is a classic get-right game from the defending champions. It is at home, and, like all prideful teams, there’s nothing better to shed the embarrassment of a loss than to follow it up with a blowout win. If you have Henderson play him.
Wide receivers and tight ends to start in Week 2
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
He disappointed you last week, but he’ll be necessary against the Chiefs on Thursday. Keenan Allen is out, and the Chargers will need points to keep up. The good news with Williams is that he has the talent and the quarterback to score a long touchdown, and I anticipate the Chargers will need to air it out to keep pace with Mahomes.
Remember that Williams has historically played well in Kansas City. Last year he logged a 7-122-2 line, the year before 6-108-1. When the Chargers battled the Chiefs for the AFC West crown in 2018 it was on the back of Williams, who scored 3 touchdowns in Kansas City to give them the inside track on the division. Maybe it’s the BBQ.
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Home opener.
New foundational quarterback.
Disappointment against a team they should’ve beaten last week.
I think Russell Wilson and company will respond in full. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton split targets last week, and the Texans’ secondary was just exploited by Michael Pittman. There are fantasy points to be had, so I think both Denver receivers are safe bets.
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
This is if he’s healthy. If he suits up, Las Vegas is prone to the tight end position, and Arizona doesn’t have much past Hollywood Brown and Ertz. They’ll have to keep up in this game, and it would not be shocking to see Ertz in the end zone like he did last week.
D/STs to start in Week 2
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
Yes, they are without TJ Watt, but they get to play the hapless Patriots who put up seven points last week against a division rival. We heard all offseason their offense was trash, and maybe we didn’t believe it because the team is coached by Bill Belichick, but believe it now. This will be a boring game, and boring games are great for D/ST positions.
Cleveland Browns D/ST
Repeat after me:
Myles Garrett at home against Joe Flacco behind a shaky offensive line.
Myles Garrett at home against Joe Flacco behind a shaky offensive line.
Myles Garrett at home against Joe Flacco behind a shaky offensive line.
Now go get the Browns D and put them in your starting lineup.
Fantasy football Week 2 sit ’em
Quarterbacks to sit in Week 2
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Proceed with caution here. He has actually played pretty well in New Orleans—it is at home against the Saints that it all seems to fall apart—but with how shaky his offensive line is, how Chris Godwin is out, and Mike Evans and Julio Jones are nursing injuries and the fact the Saints would love nothing more than to shut him out, I’d stay away from GOAT this weekend.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
He’ll get the ball in the hands of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but the Ravens are back to having a respectable defense this year. This could be a defensive slugfest with both teams making sure they do whatever is necessary not to turn the ball over. The over/under is 40.5, which is the lowest game this week, and the winner of the game may just be based on field position. Great for kickers. Not so much for starting quarterbacks.
Running backs to sit in Week 2
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
For all the reasons you should start his teammate Darrell Henderson, you should Bench Cam Akers. He was on the field for 18% of snaps and gained 0 yards on 3 carries. 0 yards! There’s no way you should trust him in your starting lineup. If you drafted him, more than likely you got him in the 3rd or 4th round. Keep him on your bench and cross your fingers that he picks up a sense of urgency in the upcoming weeks.
Dameon Pierce and Rex Burkhead, RB, Houston Texans
Nothing inspires the gag reflex as much as a Texans’ split backfield. Especially one traveling to Denver to take on a good defense that desperately needs a win to stay in the AFC West hunt. I can see if it one of these guys was getting a majority of the work, but right now neither is more than a low-floor play and hope for a touchdown. Steer clear.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We have five games in the past two years in which Tom Brady/Mike Evans duo has played against the Saints defense featuring Marcus Lattimore. Here’s how it unfolded:
Week 1, 2020: 1 catch for 2 yards, 1 TD
Week 9, 2020: 4 catches, 64 yards
Divisional Round, 2020: 1 catch, 3 yards, 1 TD
Week 8, 2021: 2 catches, 48 yards, 1 TD
Week 15 , 2021: 1 catch, 14 yards
This is a five-week sample with 8.02 PPR average. The highest of all of these is the 4th game in which he scored 12.8 PPR points. This is your ceiling. Your floor is 2.4 PPR points. It hurts to sit someone this good, but the Saints have his number.
Wide receivers and tight ends to sit in Week 1
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
The last time Cooper Rush played a full game for the Cowboys was last year, Week 8 against the Vikings. It was a prime-time game, and he filled in for Dak when he was ruled out that afternoon. In that game, Lamb posted 8-122-1 in a matchup that yielded only 36 total points.
All of this is to say that not all is bleak for the Cowboys. You have to downgrade everyone, but offensive coordinators will find a way to get the ball in their playmakers’ hands. CeeDee will have fine games going forward, but I do fear the Bengals pressure will break Dallas this weekend. They posted 7 sacks against the Steelers, and Trubisky is mobile. We just saw what a good pass rush will do to the Cowboys last week, and now they’re missing two of their starting O-line to injuries. I am afraid this one will be rough for Cowboy fans.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, he had 10 targets last game, but he’s going from last year’s 26th-ranked fantasy defense against TEs to last year’s 2nd-ranked. Like Miami and Baltimore, the matchup between Pittsburgh and New England will probably be low scoring and full of players you wish you didn’t start.
Dawson Knox, TE, Tennessee Titans
Speaking of good defenses against tight ends, the Titans are right up there with the Patriots. Knox had a disappointing week last week as he had to help block, and I can see the same formula against Tennessee’s pass rush. He has the ability to score a long touchdown but bet on this in upcoming high-scoring games against the Chiefs and the Packers.
That is all, folks. Best of luck in Week 2!
