Week 5 Start em Sit em: Matt Ryan is back in the start em column, and for good reason. See who else is trending up (or down) this week. For more start-sit advice, send a tweet to Paul at @pauliep97.
[Also See: Week 5 FanDuel Plays | Week 5 Pick’Em]
Week 5 Start em Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan, Falcons
This makes two straight weeks in the start column for Matt Ryan, who is having a heck of a season. Through four games, Ryan has more passing yards and total TDs than he has in his MVP season in 2016. Now he comes up against the Steelers, who are allowing the 3rd most points to fantasy QBs this season. Don’t hesitate to fire up Matty Ice this week, and every week going forward.
Andy Dalton, Bengals
Here’s a fun fact: since the Bengals switched to Bill Lazor at offensive coordinator in September of last season, Andy Dalton is 3rd in the league in TD passes. The Red Rifle is alive and well. A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd are reliable targets, Joe Mixon is returning from injury (more on him later), and the offense is scoring 31.5 PPG, good for 4th in the league. Don’t be scared off by the matchup. The Dolphins look tough on paper–29th in QB fantasy points allowed–but Tom Brady is the only decent signal caller they’ve faced all year. Dalton is a solid streamer this week.
Alex Smith, Redskins
At this point, it seems unlikely that Alex Smith will repeat as a top-5 fantasy quarterback. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth a look under the right circumstances. Against the Saints this week, Smith will have to throw to keep his team in the game, and New Orleans has been beatable through the air (2nd most QB points allowed). I like Smith’s chances of being a start-worthy QB this week in a Monday Night Football shootout.
Week 5 Sit em Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota, Titans
I know Marcus Mariota just had a huge game against Philadelphia, but don’t chase the points here; he’s fool’s gold. There’s a pattern to Mariota’s game: he flashes huge potential, waits for you to jump on board, and then totally lets you down. He’s the Amari Cooper of quarterbacks. Take last season, for example. Mariota scored 15+ fantasy points 9 times last season. His average fantasy score after such a game? 10. Avoid Mariota this week against a Bills team that has held Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers under 16 points in back to back games.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Last year’s top fantasy quarterback is off to a rough start this season. After a 25-point game in Week 1, Russell Wilson has been trending in the wrong direction. The whole Seattle offense is stuck in the mud, but the biggest issue is that Wilson hasn’t been running at all–his 21 rushing yards last week were a season high. The matchup this week is not favorable, as the Seahawks are up against a Rams team that has given up only 5 passing TDs all season. Russell Wilson has historically been a player that improves as the season goes on, but I don’t think you can trust him for the time being.
Derek Carr, Raiders
Derek Carr’s performance against the Browns this past Sunday was a surprise. Nobody expected the game, which featured a struggling Oakland offense and a rookie quarterback making his first start, to turn into a track meet. But the projections were wrong, and Carr finished the game with 437 yards and 4 TDs, which is great production; unfortunately, he needed 58 pass attempts to get there. That level of volume is not sustainable, especially in an average offense like Oakland’s. Carr has an okay matchup against the Chargers this week, but you should still expect the passing stats to come crashing back down to mediocrity.
Week 5 Start em Running Backs
Joe Mixon, Bengals
Disclaimer: this pick is contingent on Joe Mixon returning to 100 percent health this week. If the coaching staff indicates that he will be on any kind of snap count, the expectations for Mixon should go way down. Assuming Mixon returns at full strength, however, he’s a great option in Week 5. Through the first two games of the season (more like 1 ¾ if you consider that he missed some of Week 2 due to injury), Mixon had 44 touches! That type of volume paired with Mixon’s talent should add up to elite production against a Dolphins team that was gashed by Sony Michel in Week 4 to the tune of 112 yards (4.5 YPC) and a TD.
Chris Thompson, Redskins
When you have to split time with Adrian Peterson, you might not always get a fair share of the work. This was made abundantly clear in Chris Thompson’s 2.7 point game in Week 3. However, Thompson should bounce back this week against the Saints on Monday Night Football. The expectation is that this will be a high-scoring affair where the Redskins are forced to throw a ton to keep up with Drew Brees and company. Under these circumstances, Thompson should see plenty of work in the passing game. Start him with confidence this week.
Marshawn Lynch, Raiders
Like his teammate, Derek Carr, Marshawn Lynch had a very fantasy friendly-game in Week 4. Unlike Carr, though, Lynch was actually efficient. He rushed for 130 yards on 20 carries (6.5 YPC) and added 3 catches for 27 yards. Lynch has already had games of 18 and 19 carries this season, so the volume is sustainable. While that YPC figure has to come down a bit, the steady workload and high touchdown upside is enough to make Lynch a trustworthy starter in Week 5.
Week 5 Sit em Running Backs
Dalvin Cook, Vikings
Dalvin Cook’s disappointing performance last Thursday night demonstrated that he is not fully healthy. Cook himself even admitted that he’s not at 100 percent. The recovery of a hamstring injury is almost impossible to predict, so even if Cook is cleared for Sunday’s game he could re-aggravate it at any point and be forced to exit (similar to Leonard Fournette this past week). By the way, the Eagles, who Cook faces this week, are allowing a league low 64 rushing YPG. Leave Cook on your bench for one more week and wait for him to get healthy.
Adrian Peterson, Redskins
The game script, on paper, this week is not favorable for Adrian Peterson. As I stated above, the Redskins will probably be throwing a lot against the Saints, which means that Peterson will be standing on the sidelines watching Chris Thompson catch passes. It’s hard to score a lot of points from the sidelines. In Week 2 against the Colts, the only game in which the Redskins were behind for a significant amount of time, Peterson rushed 11 times for 20 yards. In Weeks 1 and 3, when the Redskins were ahead, he went 26 for 96 and 19 for 120, respectively. Game script matters for AP. Bench him this week.
LeSean McCoy, Bills
LeSean McCoy has had an absolutely brutal season thus far. He hasn’t had more than 10 carries in any game this season, he’s dealt with a rib injury, and now his status for Sunday is in question due to a hand injury. I think he’ll likely play, but it’s unlikely that head coach Sean McDermott will give McCoy the volume that he will need to be effective in an absolutely unwatchable Bills offense. Stay away.
Week 5 Start em Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp, Rams
I’ll admit that I was skeptical of Kupp, and of all of the Rams’ pass-catchers for that matter, coming into the season. My expectation was that, similar to the Patriots’ running backs in past seasons, one of the Rams’ wideouts would be great every week, but you would have no idea who to choose. Instead, Cooks, Woods, and Kupp have proven to be reliable week in and week out. I don’t expect that to change for Kupp, who sees a ton of targets and gets the most red zone work of the three. He’s a locked in starter moving forward.
John Brown, Ravens
John Brown, who leads the league with 22.5 YPC this season, is a big play waiting to happen. The concern for Brown, who had a 1,000 yard season in 2015, has always been health. Now that Brown is finally healthy, he’s reminding everyone what an electric player he can be. With quarterback Joe Flacco enjoying a resurgence of his own, the big plays will continue. Unlike a lot of other deep threats, John Brown is actually receiving a healthy share of the targets. He’s second on the team with 30 targets (Michael Crabtree has 34), so you can feel confident that Brown’s performance so far is not a fluke.
Calvin Ridley, Falcons
I just think it’s great that the Falcons finally have a solid number two wide receiver: Julio Jones. Okay, I stole that joke, but seriously, the rookie Calvin Ridley has been absolutely unreal. In the last three games, Ridley has scored six–SIX–touchdowns. He’s also averaging 17.6 YPC (6th best in the league), and hasn’t finished with less than 50 receiving yards since Week 1. With all of that being said, regression is likely coming. Ridley has only been on the field for 62 percent of the snaps and during his monster three-game stretch, he’s averaged just six targets per game. His current efficiency can’t keep up forever, but sometimes you just have to trust the talent. Being matched up against an awful defense like the Steelers helps, too. Throw Ridley in your lineup and enjoy his miraculous run while it lasts.
Week 5 Sit em Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Many had high hopes for Larry Fitzgerald, the ageless wonder, coming into the season. With Sam Bradford leading the offense, it would be checkdowns galore, and the shifty Fitzgerald would catch 10 passes a game. Well, through four weeks, that plan has not come to fruition. Instead, the Cardinals’ offense has been fantasy poison for every player not named David Johnson (although not even he has been totally immune). No Cardinals quarterback has thrown for 200 yards in a game this season, and the team has yet to surpass 17 points. In such a stagnant offense, with a rookie under center, you just can’t trust Fitz.
Sammy Watkins, Chiefs
Sammy Watkins pulled his hamstring in the first half of Monday Night Football and finished the game without a catch, crushing the hopes and dreams of fantasy owners everywhere. Recent reports indicate that Watkins is practicing this week in preparation for Sunday’s game against the Jaguars, but even if Watkins is active, you can’t play him. Hamstring injuries tend to linger, which means his chance for reinjury is high. Plus, he faces a stellar Jaguars defense that has allowed only 164 passing yards per game and 3 total passing TDs this season. Stay away.
Michael Crabtree, Ravens
Michael Crabtree has always relied on touchdowns for his fantasy relevance. Many expected that, without an established tight end in Baltimore, Crabtree would become the go-to red zone target for Flacco. Instead, Crabtree is 6th on his team in red zone targets (2) and has scored 1 TD through four games. Until that number goes up, Crabtree won’t be usable as more than a low-upside flex.
Week 5 Start em Tight Ends
Vance McDonald, Steelers
Last week, I viewed the Steelers’ tight end situation as a timeshare, with neither Jesse James nor Vance McDonald being usable fantasy assets. However, after seeing another week of this offense, I’ve changed my tune. In Week 4, Vance McDonald caught 5 of 5 targets for 62 yards, while Jesse James caught just 1 pass for 23 yards and was often relegated to blocking duties. Considering the current tight end wasteland, McDonald is a viable starter in what should be a high-scoring game against Atlanta.
Jimmy Graham, Packers
Following in the footsteps of previous Packers’ tight ends (see: Cook, Jared; Bennett, Martellus), Jimmy Graham has not lived up to the offseason hype. He’s topped 45 receiving yards just once in four tries, and has only one touchdown. However, both Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison could be out this week, which would mean an uptick in targets for Graham. When you factor in a matchup with the weak Lions defense, Graham makes sense as a starter this week.
Week 5 Sit em Tight Ends
Rhett Ellison, Giants
When Evan Engram suffered an MCL injury two weeks ago, many desperate fantasy owners ran to the waiver wire to snatch up Engram’s backup, Rhett Ellison. They were rewarded with an uninspiring 3 catch, 29 yard performance, and there’s no reason to believe that those numbers will improve. Rhett Ellison just isn’t the athletic specimen or route runner that Evan Engram is. He was signed to be a run-blocker and that is the role that he will continue to fill.
Geoff Swaim, Cowboys
With so many tight end injuries this year, there are a lot of teams desperate for a replacement, and, since he scored a touchdown last week, Geoff Swaim might seem like an attractive streaming option. He’s not. The Cowboys offense has been abysmal this season. They aren’t running a lot of plays, they aren’t scoring a lot of points, and there are too many equally mediocre pass-catchers to know who will get the ball when the occasional scoring opportunity arises. Leave him on the waiver wire.
For more start-sit advice, send a tweet to Paul at @pauliep97.
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