The next installment of @PhilPattonNFL ‘s early 2019 fantasy football draft board. The players are ranked based on standard scoring formats. You can see his top 20 here, 21-40 here and 41-60 here.
One of the first steps in developing a draft plan is determining where you feel comfortable taking each quarterback. In a 10-team league, it would be reasonable to target Patrick Mahomes in the 3rd round, Aaron Rodgers in the 4th, and Andrew Luck in the 6th. The top QBs often get over-drafted due to their name recognition, but the depth at the position makes that a foolish endeavor. Just look at this section: six quarterbacks and Drew Brees didn’t even make the cut. Do yourself a favor and wait until the 7th round to grab a quality starter.
61. Mike Williams, WR26
After an injury-plagued rookie year, Mike Williams established himself as a premier red zone threat in 2018. He scored 6 TDs on only 9 targets near the goal line, and 11 TDs total. But Williams wasn’t just a red zone threat, he also posted the 11th-highest yards/reception in the league behind teammate Tyrell Williams. Given Mike’s draft status and his performance last year, it’s likely the Chargers let the other Williams walk in free agency and hand Mike a bigger role in the offense. As the only deep-threat in the prolific Chargers passing game, Mike Williams has top-15 upside next season.
62. Russell Wilson, QB4
Last year was a bizarre statistical season for Russell Wilson. The Seahawks led the league in run percentage but Wilson ran the ball only 67 times, the fewest in his career. He also had his fewest passing attempts and yards since 2013 but set a personal record with 35 TD passes. Wilson proved his consistency last season by producing in an offense designed to limit his impact—he was the QB4 from weeks 5-16. His 8.2% TD rate will be unsustainable, but Wilson should enjoy more volume in the passing game next season with a healthy Doug Baldwin at his disposal. Expect a top-5 finish for Russell Wilson in 2019.
63. Calvin Ridley, WR27
The 2018 Falcons offense put Calvin Ridley’s talent and circumstantial limitations on full display. He started the season on fire with 277 yards and 6 TDs from weeks 2-4, making him the WR1 and the most coveted waiver wire addition. He then churned out 6.4 fantasy points/game in weeks 5-16, producing as the WR41 over that span behind teammate Mohamed Sanu. Ridley will remain an inconsistent fantasy producer while ceding significant targets to two other receivers. However, he has the talent to demand a steady role in the offense and one injury to the Falcons receiving core can dramatically affect his usage. Bet on Calvin Ridley the player, not his situation in 2019.
64. Deshaun Watson, QB5
Deshaun Watson displayed a reckless style of play in 2018 that is both incredibly troubling and valuable for fantasy owners. His desire to hold the ball until the last moment, coupled with poor pass-protection up front, led him to take a league-high 62 sacks and suffer a collapsed lung last season. It’s an interesting strategy for a player coming off a torn ACL. Despite the risk it presents to his personal health, Watson’s mobility is what made him the QB5 last year — he rushed for 551 yards and 5 TDs, both 3rd in the league. Quarterback rushes are a young man’s game and the Texans coaching staff hasn’t expressed any desire to limit Watson’s mobility. Instead, they will look to improve the offensive line in the offseason and help Watson make quicker reads. He’s a young star in this league who should continue to ascend as long as he remains healthy.
65. Chris Godwin, WR28
The Bucs passing game was the best in the league last season and managed to produce four top-33 WRs. At least one will be departing this offseason — either DeSean Jackson or Adam Humphries — which should only propel Chris Godwin’s rise. Godwin took over as the No. 2 receiver in the offense last year and finished as the WR25 with only 95 targets — the same number as Willie Snead. With an expanded role in Bruce Arians’ downfield passing game, Godwin has a wonderful opportunity to improve on his sophomore campaign. Expect him to outperform his average draft position and finish as a low-end WR2 next season.
66. Tyler Lockett, WR29
It may sound like hyperbole, but Tyler Lockett actually had a perfect season in 2018. He led the league in yards/target, caught 81.4% of his targets as a deep-ball receiver, and gave Wilson a perfect passer rating when targeting him. Those efficiency numbers are so impressive, they will be downright impossible to replicate next year. If the Seahawks deviate from their run-heavy offense, Lockett will not find himself so wide open on play-action passing plays. Doug Baldwin should also factor into the offense more and there’s no way Lockett scores 10 TDs again without a single target inside the 8-yard line. There are several reasons Lockett will not relive his magical 2018 season again next year.
67. Tyler Boyd, WR30
Tyler Boyd flourished in the Bengals offense last season, even before A.J. Green went down to injury. This season will be a much different landscape for him, however, with Cincinnati bringing in their first offensive-minded head coach since Bruce Coslet (who?!) in 2000. New coach Zac Taylor is expected to bring some much-needed innovation to the Bengals offense, but it remains to be seen what that will look like. As for Boyd, his targets may take a dip with Green returning from injury, but he should get more red zone opportunities if the Bengals offense takes a step forward in 2019.
68. Jared Goff, QB6
Jared Goff orchestrated one of the N.F.L.’s most prolific offenses in 2018, second only to the Chiefs. What frustrated fantasy owners about Goff were his poor showings on the road. Goff averaged 25.1 points/game at home and only 13.7 on the road. That includes a negative-point performance in Chicago, but also a 29.3-point outing in New Orleans. Stream another QB when Goff plays a cold weather game and you should be good to go. After all, he was the QB2 at home last year and Cooper Kupp returns to the offense in 2019.
69. Eric Ebron, TE6
Eric Ebron reeled in more TDs in 2018 than in his first four seasons combined. He scored 13 TDs on only 26 red zone targets and tallied a career-high 750 receiving yards last year. Ebron developed instant chemistry with Andrew Luck and served as his favorite red zone target in the absence of Jack Doyle. The sample size is small, but the early returns are good for when both TEs are available in the Colts offense. Ebron averaged 12.9 fewer yards/game with Doyle on the field but scored a whopping 8 TDs in those six games. His role as the primary red zone target in the ascending Colts offense makes him an every-week starter next season.
70. Cam Newton, QB7
Cam Newton was having one of his most consistent seasons last year before the wheels fell off in week 13. He was the QB3 until his shoulder injury flared up to the point that it impacted his velocity and willingness to escape the pocket. Before being hit in the shoulder by T.J. Watt in week 9, Cam was averaging 9.1 rushes, 0.5 rushing TDs, and 0.5 INTs/game. After the injury, he averaged 4.7 rushes, zero rushing TDs, and 1.5 INTs/game. Newton had an arthroscopic procedure done in January, so his health will certainly be a topic of conversation this offseason. If he’s fully healthy going into training camp, Newton has tremendous upside in a Norv Turner offense with Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore at his disposal.
71. Jameis Winston, QB8
Jameis Winston averaged 19.3 fantasy points in his nine games as the Bucs starter last year. Sustained over a full season, that would have made him the QB8. Winston has always had the ability to put up huge numbers, but costly mistakes both on and off the field have left him as a fringe-starter in the NFL. This season will be his last chance to earn a starting QB contract and who better than Bruce Arians to help him get it? This is the man who helped revitalize the career of another mistake-prone quarterback, Carson Palmer. Arians will encourage Winston to take deep shots downfield to Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, and possibly DeSean Jackson (getting him to cut down on turnovers would just be a bonus). The Bucs also have a terrible defense in a division full of dynamic offenses, which means they’ll once again be forced to score to keep up in 2019. There’s a whole lot to love about Winston’s outlook going into next season.
72. James White, RB28
James White was the one constant in the Patriots offense last season, aside from Tom Brady. With Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon intermittently missing time, White picked up the slack to the tune of 181 touches — his previous career-high was 99. White will be hard-pressed to reproduce that volume next season with Michel taking control of the backfield and the Patriots sure to address the WR position in the offseason. He should, however, continue to fill in for missing pieces on offense, so White remains a useful flex option who could be a value once again in 2019.
73. Sammy Watkins, WR31
Sammy Watkins was considered the best WR prospect in a draft that included Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry. Since then, Watkins simply hasn’t displayed the consistency or durability to back up his obvious talent; he hasn’t played a full season or finished as a top-30 fantasy WR since 2015. Despite all that, the Chiefs are heavily invested in Watkins going forward. He has the 4th-highest cap hit among WRs in 2019, so Andy Reid will have ample reason to get him involved in the league’s top scoring offense. Watkins’ lack of durability makes him a risky choice at this point in the draft, but he should be a solid WR2 at home — he averaged 12.9 points/game in four games at Arrowhead Stadium last year.
74. Matt Ryan, QB9
Matt Ryan quietly finished as the QB2 last season, feasting on poor defenses to the tune of 32 points/game against bottom-16 defenses. His poor games — in Philadelphia and against Baltimore — were fairly easy to predict, making him one of the most reliable fantasy starters. Factoring in his success were the injuries on defense that necessitated a massive passing volume (608 attempts, 3rd in the league) and the injury to Devonta Freeman that allowed him to account for 83% of the Falcons’ offensive TDs. That efficiency, along with his 5.8% TD-rate, will be difficult to reproduce next season. Expect Ryan to take a step back in 2019 but remain a top-10 QB with all the dynamic weapons in the Falcons offense.
75. Jordan Howard, RB29
Assuming he keeps his job in the offseason, Howard projects as nothing more than a TD-dependent RB3. He clearly didn’t fit the new offensive scheme installed by head coach Matt Nagy and often looked like he was running in quicksand, registering 3.7 yards/carry. Howard has also proven incapable of producing as a receiver, which makes him a poor fit in an offense that prides itself on versatility. The Bears are rumored to be interested in Kareem Hunt, whose addition would effectively eliminate Howard’s value in the second half of the season, depending on the suspension handed down by the league.
76. Kenyan Drake, RB30
I’m honestly beginning to wonder if Adam Gase has personal vendettas against certain players. He gave his starting RB seven official starts in 2018 and only 173 offensive touches. Luckily for Kenyan Drake, the Dolphins will be employing a new head coach next season: Patriots LB coach Brian Flores. Defensive-minded coaches are known for controlling the time of possession and avoiding turnovers by running the ball on offense. However, the Dolphins offense looks completely devoid of talent and Kalen Ballage may challenge for the starting role in 2019. Even if he doesn’t, it remains to be seen whether Drake can handle a heavy workload. There are just too many questions surrounding Drake to feel good about his prospects going into next season.
77. David Njoku, TE7
David Njoku has yet to have the breakout season many expected when he was selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, but it’s important to remember he was still getting acclimated to the TE position. Njoku played only one season at TE in college and will turn 23 years old this offseason— he’s a full year younger than rookie Baker Mayfield. He clearly has the physical tools to succeed, and for the first time in a long time, there’s an opportunity for success in the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looks poised to dominate for years to come and Njoku should be his favorite target in the red zone.
78. Evan Engram, TE8
The 2018 Giants offense was a disaster for just about everyone not named Saquon Barkley. Evan Engram was no exception, as he battled multiple injuries and produced inconsistent results when on the field. However, he was the TE2 over the last four games of the season behind only George Kittle. Engram has shown solid yardage production over his two seasons as a pro, but his red zone opportunities will be limited as Eli’s third option behind Beckham and Barkley. Consider Engram a safe TE with a little upside in 2019.
79. Will Fuller, WR32
When on the field, Will Fuller has been a deadly deep threat for QB Deshaun Watson—they’ve connected for 11 TDs in eleven games together. Unfortunately, their injury histories have been just as prolific. Three separate injuries caused Fuller to miss nearly half the season in 2017 and he tore his ACL in week 8 last year. An ACL injury could be truly devastating for a player so reliant on his speed. If the buzz around Fuller is positive during training camp, he’s worth taking a flier on as a high-upside flex option.
80. Marvin Jones, WR33
Marvin Jones had one of the worst seasons of his career last year, but he wasn’t fully to blame. Kenny Golladay ate into his role as the big-bodied deep-threat, the Lions passing game lost a ton of volume, and a knee injury ended his season prematurely. The aftermath leaves Jones as the No. 2 receiver in a run-heavy offense, which doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. In the words of Bill Belichick, “good players can’t overcome bad coaching.” The intrigue with Jones is that he’s a talented player who may be unburdened by poor coaching sooner rather than later. He still has WR2-upside if Patricia is fired midseason and the Lions offense returns to being a functional unit.
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