Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article. This week’s Twitter question comes from @Baz10000 who asked “Big Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, or Tua Tagovailoa, pick one?” The detailed answer to this question is at the bottom of this article.
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, or Kyler Murray.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 15 — Quarterback
Start – Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) @ARI
The Cardinals are a somewhat stingy defense against opposing quarterbacks. Through 14 weeks they allow an average of 18.3-FPPG and that is middle of the road when looking at the entire league.
The big thing here is that the Cardinals are not the best at stopping mobile quarterbacks and it is partly due to their man-coverage preference on defense. When covering man-to-man, many defenders will have their backs to the quarterback which allows opposing quarterbacks time to get downfield with their legs.
Pulling from a Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) tweet, the quarterback rushing performances against the Cardinals have been advantageous: Teddy Bridgewater 6-32-1, Russell Wilson 6-84, Tua Tagovailoa 7-35, Josh Allen 7-38, Russell Wilson 10-42, and Cam Newton 9-46. Just last week – against the best run-defense – Hurts finished with 167 passing yards, 106 rushing yards, one passing touchdown, and one rushing touchdown. Head coach Doug Pederson is determined to utilize Hurts’ rushing ability and that was evident once we saw Hurts get 18 carries.
Hurts is a really good start this week and is a pay-down option at quarterback for cash-games in DFS leagues.
Start – Tom Brady (QB, TB) @ATL
Tom Brady is an elite option this week in fantasy with the upside to finish as the QB1 overall. With running back Ronald Jones questionable with a broken pinky finger, it could exacerbate Brady’s usage further. Watch out for injury updates revolving around Ronald Jones.
Anytime you get a quarterback against the Falcons you just go ahead and start them because Atlanta allows a league-high 23.8-FPPG. In terms of passing yards against, Atlanta allows the third-most and has surrendered an average of 281.8 per game.
Brady comes into this contest with up-and-down performances over his last four weeks. In the aforementioned contests Brady finished with 31.8, 14.6, 23.7 and 15.6, respectively. Brady’s upside in this matchup comes from the fact that Atlanta has difficulty covering wide receivers. The Bucs will run out three stud receivers and it will be everything for Atlanta to contain them. Additionally, Atlanta has a difficult time stopping opposing tight ends and that puts Rob Gronkowski in play as well (see below in the tight end start-sit).
Get Brady into lineups this week, he should get it done for your team in the playoffs. His match up is great and there are injuries that could make Brady throw it around even more.
Sit – Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA) vs NE
The young rookie was able to sling it around with the best in Week 14, but in Week 15 it looks like Tagovailoa should come back down to earth.
New England has been all over the opposing passing-game in 2020. They allow 218.5 passing yards per contest and over their last three, they have shrunk that down to 160 passing yards per game. The Patriots are also the third-best team in fantasy at stopping quarterbacks and they allow 16.4-FPPG.
You also have to take into consideration the Bill Belichick factor: we know that Belichick is a defensive mastermind, and rookies seemingly feel that the most. Belichick recently faced off against rookie quarterback Justin Herbert for the Chargers. Herbert finished that contest with 6.4-fantasy points, despite his average being 22.1-fantasy points per game.
Outside of Tagovailoa’s Week 14 explosion, he has only finished with 20-plus fantasy points on one occasion. Chasing points is never a great plan for fantasy managers and in Week 15, that is exactly what you are doing if you play Tua.
Get him onto your bench and wait for his match up against Las Vegas in Week 16.
Start-Sit Week 15 — Running Back
Start – Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) vs HOU
We always knew that Taylor possessed the ability to win you a league, but the coaching staff never put him into position to accomplish that feat. That no longer seems to be the case. After finally breaking out, it certainly seems that Jonathan Taylor will fulfill his league-winning prophecy.
Over his last two weeks he has 33 rushing attempts for 241 yards and five receptions for 59 yards, totaling three touchdowns. His fantasy score in the aforementioned games are 21 and 29.5, respectively.
Even in Week 11 we saw a clear uptick in Taylor’s workload. He finished that week with 22 rushing attempts, the first time reaching 20 attempts since Week 2.
And if that is not enough, Taylor will be running against the second-worst team at stopping opposing running backs. Currently Houston is allowing a clip of 26.2-FPPG to backs. The Texans also allow the second-most rushing yards per game at 152.3.
Get Taylor into your lineup and let him be your league-winner, like you originally thought.
Start – J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL) vs JAC
The time has come for Dobbins to emerge in this backfield and his new-found usage makes him a great start this week.
Over his last three contests Dobbins has received 39 carries for 194 yards, two receptions for 15 yards and three touchdowns. In the aforementioned games, Dobbins has averaged 14.63-FPPG which is certainly valuable at the running back position.
This week Dobbins will face off against the Jacksonville Jaguars who just surrendered 249 rushing yards to the Titans – 215 of those yards coming from Derrick Henry alone. It really doesn’t surprise you that Jacksonville gave up so many rushing yards to Tennessee because the Jags allow an average of 22.9-FPPG to opposing running backs.
Dobbins finally has the expanded role that fantasy managers have longed for and he will face-off against the fifth-worst defense at stopping running backs. Get Dobbins into lineups in Week 15.
Sit- Todd Gurley (RB, ATL) vs TB
Of late, there has been a string of bad performances from Todd Gurley. In the last three games that he has played Gurley finished with 2.9, 2 and 3.1-fantasy points, respectively. That is not getting it done for fantasy managers and the big reason (which we covered in this article earlier) is that Todd Gurley is touchdown-dependent.
It also doesn’t help that his team routinely finds themselves trailing in contests, which can quickly fade out the running-game as a result.
Going up against Tampa Bay in Week 15, the road does not get easier for Gurley. Tampa Bay shuts down opposing running backs and up to this point in the year, they allow an average of 14.6-FPPG, fourth-lowest. Most importantly, opposing teams as a whole average 80.9 rushing yards per game against this Tampa defense and that is the lowest in the NFL.
Gurley remains a troubling, touchdown-dependent option in Week 15. Get him out of lineups and plug-in a back with a much better outlook. Gurley is a player you can drop outright as well.
Start-Sit Week 15 — Wide Receiver
Start – Allen Robinson (WR, CHI) @MIN
The Vikings are atrocious at covering wide receivers and are the worst defense in the NFL with an average of 28.55-FPPG surrendered. Opposing pass-offenses average 256.6 passing yards per game against this Vikings’ secondary and that is seventh-worst.
Robinson is coming into Week 15 with two solid fantasy performances out of his last three games. Last week alone we saw 123 receiving yards from Robinson and that was the highest amount from the receiver since Week 3.
To be honest, since quarterback Mitch Trubisky has regained the reins this Chicago offense looks much better and far less anemic. This should only boost Robinson because his disappointing fantasy season has been riddled with poor play from the quarterback position.
The quarterback situation seems more reliable, the matchup is there and Robinson is capable of breaking a slate wide-open; that is why you must start him this week against Minnesota.
Start – Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF) @DAL
Quietly smashing fantasy football is Brandon Aiyuk, who, over his last five games played, has finished with 14.5, 13.1, 16.2, 18 and 16.9-fantasy points respectively. Add in the fact that out of his 10 total games played, he has finished with a double-digit fantasy output 70-percent of the time.
Not only is his ceiling there this week against Dallas, but so is his floor because Deebo Samuel is on track to miss Week 15 (and possibly the season).
Coming in as the second-worst defense at stopping opposing wide receivers, Dallas allows 28.2-FPPG. This stat becomes crazy when you realize that Dallas only allows 215.2 passing yards per game, which is sixth-best. Consequently, this means Dallas gives up a lot of touchdowns and Aiyuk should be able to snag at least one of them.
Get Aiyuk into your starting rotation. It is hard to imagine a much better option and while they may be there, it is nearly impossible to bench Aiyuk this week.
Sit – Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ) @LAR – Questionable
At this point in the season you should know one thing: The Rams’ defense has been consistently the most dominant defense against fantasy pieces.
Through 14 weeks the Rams have stifled fantasy production at the wide receiver position and have only allowed 17-FPPG, the lowest amount in football. Opposing teams as a whole also find it difficult to move the ball through the air and LA has limited them to a league-best 191.7 passing yards per contest.
That really creates a high probability of failure for Crowder and that is because the Jets’ offense only averages 166.1 passing yards per game – a number that has shrunk down to 153 yards over their last three. The Rams consistently get pressure on the quarterback as well, likely making Sam Darnold run for his life or, at the least, force turnovers.
Factor in Crowder’s last four games and you quickly understand that it is tough to start a guy who has only averaged 6.9-FPPG. Crowder is a full-on bench this week unless you are in a deep, full-PPR league.
Start-Sit Week 15 — Tight End
Start – Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB) @ATL
The Falcons don’t do many things right and guarding tight ends hasn’t been anything worth writing home about. Atlanta is the fifth-worst team at slowing down opposing tight ends and currently give up 9.7-FPPG to the position.
When targeting tight ends we want to look for touchdown upside. There is no reason to think that Gronk couldn’t score in Week 15 against the fifth-easiest defense for opposing tight ends. One important note is that Ronald Jones could miss this Week 15 contest after undergoing a surgical procedure. While that does not directly affect Gronkowski per se, it would put the ball in Tom Brady’s hands more which could result to more touchdown opportunities.
Tight ends are always a guessing game unless you have Darren Waller or Travis Kelce. Gronkowski looks to be in the right opportunity to snag a touchdown and give your fantasy team a nice return in Week 15.
Start – Irv Smith Jr (TE, CHI) vs CHI
The game-line on this contest projects to be a respectable 47u with Minnesota being 3-point favorites. Chicago does a great job at stopping outside wide receivers. Additionally, they also have done well against the run when Akiem Hicks is healthy (which he currently is).
Something has to give offensively and that could easily lead to Smith having a great day. Smith will be lining up against the fourth-worst defense at stopping opposing tight ends and they allow 9.9-FPPG.
The Bears’ struggle to defend tight ends has been recent too. Rewind to Week 12 and you find Robert Tonyan finishing with a 5-67-1 line. In week 13 T.J. Hockenson finished with seven receptions for 84 yards. And finally, last week Chicago allowed four receptions and 35 receiving yards to the tight end position, but Jordan Akins dropped a wide-open touchdown in the end zone.
Start Smith up if you are needing something at the tight end position. He finished with 14.3-fantasy points last week and could easily follow that up with an encore performance.
Sit – Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) vs SF
San Francisco has been impressive at stopping opposing tight ends and has only allowed 4.8-FPPG. Opposing teams have found it difficult to throw on this secondary in general and San Francisco quietly comes in as the fifth-best secondary at stopping the pass, only allowing 210.3 passing yards per game.
Dallas’ quarterback, Andy Dalton, is far from ideal when facing any kind of respectable defense and his projected failure will likely correlate negatively to Schultz. Schultz really has not gotten it done for fantasy managers either. Over his last five games he has only finished with double-digit fantasy points in one contest.
Even last week against Cincinnati, who is the second-worst defense against tight ends, Schultz found himself only scoring 4.9-fantasy points.
Schultz is difficult to rely on and in a troubling match up his touchdown upside is extremely low. Sit him on your bench or cut him and move on.
Twitter QOTW:
@Baz10000 asks “Big Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff or Tua Tagovailoa, pick one?”
To me you have to stick with Roethlisberger. While he has been down of late, Cincinnati is unable to really stop anything on the defensive side of the ball. It also doesn’t help that the Bengals have a tough time moving the ball on offense, which should only get worse with a tough Pittsburgh defense. Either way, Roethlisberger is the catalyst to this offense and I wouldn’t mind relying on him in what looks to be a get-right game.
Cousins is in an okay spot because he had some success earlier in the year while facing the Bears at Soldier Field. The issue with playing Cousins any week is that Dalvin Cook could take over and just as easily, Cousins could implode himself.
Goff is probably my second pick out of this group. My biggest issue is that the Jets don’t compete and the Rams’ defense could take over the game. If the Jets don’t put up points on the offensive side of the ball, it will limit the Rams’ upside because it doesn’t require much to lockdown a victory. Fantasy football is best for managers when both teams are going off at the same time (a good example would be the Cleveland and Baltimore game that was on Monday Night Football earlier this week). Plus, Goff’s floor is always low because the Rams have no problem committing to the run.
For Tua, please see above in the quarterback section (he was my sit of the week). Out of everyone in this group, Tua would be my last pick.
