Welcome back to Start-Sit here at 5th Down Fantasy! Every fantasy manager wants to know the correct answer to “Who do I start and who do I sit?” We do our best each week to help you make the right choices, here and each Sunday morning on Twitter (follow @5thDownFantasy and tweet your questions to our start/sit thread which starts every Sunday at 12:15 PM EST)!
In addition, we are allowing Twitter users to ask us questions in order for us to answer them inside of this article so please be on the lookout for that in the future. This week’s question of the week came from @AndrewBrethauer on Twitter (answer at the bottom).
As for the bulk of this article, each week you will get an outlook of which players have great opportunities and those who don’t, based on 1/2-point PPR. Of course, you need to start your fantasy studs every week, which is why this article will mostly avoid mentioning star players like Davante Adams, Travis Kelce, or Kyler Murray.
If any of your fantasy team’s players are mentioned, make sure to put your team into context before applying the advice; a player we deem worthy to “sit” may be your best shot at winning, so make sure to think through any decisions before they are executed.
In the end you need to play the best lineup that you feel confident in, however you get there.
Start-Sit Week 9 — Quarterback
Start – Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
This is the highest projected game by sportsbooks at 55 points and Seattle comes in as road favorites at -3. By now we know that Seattle is the team to target if you want shootouts and high fantasy finishes, and Week 9 is no different for Allen.
With Seattle giving up 26.7-FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, Allen will have one of the highest floors on the slate. Allen already possesses one of the highest floors due to his rushing ability, and that is why the probability of a ceiling-game is so high.
For Seattle, their ability to stop running backs is the best element of their defense and this should make you bullish on Allen having to throw it around a lot. Looking at Allen’s receivers, there is no reason that Stefon Diggs and John Brown shouldn’t thrive in this matchup. For the Bills defense, they have had a lot of trouble stopping high-potent offenses and Russell Wilson is arguably the best quarterback with one of the best receiving cores in the game. In this scenario, we would love for Buffalo’s defense to play poorly as it will only boost the likelihood of seeing a ceiling-game from Allen.
Allen could easily finish as the QB1 on the week. He will possess one of the highest floor-ceiling combinations and you can easily start your cash games with Allen. Get him into your lineups and you could set yourself up for a week-winning effort.
Start – Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
This is the other game that will be locked in as one of the best opportunities for fantasy points. The Raiders travel to SoFi Stadium where they will take on the -1 favored Chargers. Taking note of the spread, this game has a 53 over-under and it could turn into an offensive battle.
Herbert has looked amazing for fantasy since taking over under center. Starting with their October 4th game against the Bucs, Herbert has thrown for at least three touchdowns in every game. There is no reason to think that streak will end against the Raiders. The Raiders are in the bottom-10 for stopping opposing fantasy quarterbacks, allowing 21.2 FPPG, which should give Herbert a great floor-ceiling combination.
Herbert is a must-start for me this week, even in single-quarterback leagues. As his fantasy manager, you hope that the game-line holds true and this becomes a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. Vegas is right more often than not and it should give you the confidence to start Herbert this week.
Sit – Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater will have his work cut out for him in Week 9, as the Panthers fly out to Kansas City and take on the defending Champions. Defensively Kansas City has played well and limited the opposing teams’ passing attack. Currently, they are allowing 16.3-FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and 18.4-FPPG to opposing receivers; both are top-10 in the NFL.
When you take a look at the game-line, it does not give us a ton of insight. Any game with the Chiefs can turn into a high-scoring affair, but with the Panthers being +10 underdogs it could mean a higher probability of mistakes. When you see a large spread like +10, there is a much higher likelihood that the underdogs will be playing from behind. Trailing leads to taking risks, and risks can turn into turnovers in a hurry.
Playing on the road is never easy. Arrowhead Stadium, even without the crowd, is a difficult place to win. Bridgewater will have to contend with a team that historically plays max-effort at home. Look elsewhere for your quarterback spot in Week 9.
Start-Sit Week 9 — Running Back
Start – James Conner (RB, PIT)
In a game where it could become lopsided fast, the Dallas Cowboys will take on the Steelers. The game-script we can project is that Pittsburgh will take a comfortable lead and simply burn out the clock for a good portion of the game, and that will be huge for Conner.
The Cowboys already allow the eighth-most fantasy points to the running back position and give up an average of 21.6-FPPG. One play Dallas does not defend well against is the screen play and that is something that Conner and this offense can easily exploit.
In every game that Conner has finished without an injury, he has scored a touchdown in all but one game. With Conner’s ability to run and catch in mind, he has the potential to unlock a ceiling-game in this spot.
Start – Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
This is a wonderful play, and I believe this week could be the start of Edmonds taking the majority of the work once Kenyan Drake returns. Frankly, he’s looked better than Drake already this season.
Edmonds will be tasked with going up against the Miami Dolphins. Currently, Miami is allowing 21.8 FPPG to the running back position, 7th friendliest in the league. This guy has the ability to get it done for you in PPR formats because he’s a clear target in this offense already. Add in extra groundwork leftover from Drake and you have a good shot at an RB2 this week.
He’s a solid option this week, don’t think anything less, but Kyler Murray scores all of the touchdowns for this offense. That eats into the probability of Edmonds getting one or even two-plus touchdowns. With that understood, Edmonds is a great plug-and-play option this week. He will likely get you Kenyan Drake-like numbers at worst, however, Edmonds is more explosive with the football which gives him a higher ceiling.
Sit – Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Pittsburgh’s defense is nothing short of a place where fantasy running backs go to die. So far the Steelers have suppressed opposing running backs to 15.3-FPPG against them. Even with the talent that Ezekiel Elliott possesses, it is likely too much to overcome.
Looking at the Dallas offense, the offensive line is still experiencing injury issues. The quarterback has yet to be determined and it’s either going to be Ben DeNucci from Week 8 or a practice squad player. If there is any weakness to the Steelers’ defense, it is that they can be beaten through the air. Either way, the Cowboys will likely find themselves trailing by a large margin which never favors the running back.
Another element to Elliott is that he has looked pretty bad considering he cost the Cowboys $100-million. He’s dropping passes that turn into interceptions, he’s experiencing career-high fumbling issues and frankly, his backup has looked better than him this year.
There’s no confidence in starting Elliott this week. Obviously, it could be tough to sit him due to the BYE-week players, but if you can replace him you shouldn’t hesitate to do so.
Start-Sit Week 9 — Wide Receiver
Start – Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Going right back to this game we can easily identify that Keenan Allen could blow his mean projection away this week. We have already covered why his quarterback Justin Herbert is in a great spot, and the trickle-down effect should feed into Allen.
Allen is a unique fantasy receiver. Currently, he has a 30-percent target rate, which is the second-highest among receivers and only trails Devante Adams. When any pass-catcher demands a 30-percent target share, he is an auto-start in any pace-up game such as this. We anticipate tons of fantasy points scored in general and this is due to the 53 over-under and -1 spread favoring the Chargers. Additionally, the Las Vegas Raiders are allowing 24.2-FPPG, and Allen could easily see that from his workload alone.
Everything points to Allen being a locked and loaded WR1 this week. He easily could finish as the overall WR1 and could potentially win your week.
Start – Will Fuller (WR, HOU)
Staring at the game-line for this Houston at Jacksonville match up, we can see that it has a 50.5 over-under with the Texans being road favorites at -7. This large spread is mostly predicated around a new quarterback taking over for Jacksonville this week.
With the quarterback change in mind, this Houston defense could have an opportunity at multiple turnovers. This bodes well for the skill players on offense, like Will Fuller. One or two forced turnovers, especially on the Jacksonville side of the field, could easily lead to touchdowns for Fuller. Fuller should be hungry to produce too. As recent as this week, the impending free agent was subject to trade rumors and he likely wants to show out now that his spot in Houston is secure.
For the fantasy analysis, Jacksonville’s defense is allowing 24.7-FPPG to opposing pass catchers. In addition, Fuller has scored in every contest over his last five. Deshaun Watson will also be in a position to succeed against the Jags and normally that correlates to success for the WR1 in an offense.
Fuller is a great start this week and it will be hard to find a reason to bench him. Don’t expect a ceiling-game, the spread is likely too large, but do expect Fuller to get what you need this week. Start him with confidence.
Sit – Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
In a game projected to be slow and low scoring, Marquise Brown is not looking like a safe start in Week 9.
Indianapolis comes in allowing 24.3-FPPG to the wide receiver position, which is middle of the road. Looking at both teams’ identities, they want to play solid defense and run the ball. Because of this, you worry about big-play weapons like Marquise Brown, whose opportunities will likely be lessened due to the projected game-script.
It also doesn’t look good for Brown in general and that is because Lamar Jackson has struggled throwing the ball this year. Moreover, Jackson has struggled with connecting on the deep routes that Brown runs. Although there is a chance of seeing Jackson and Brown hookup on a big play, against a top-10 defense, like the Colts, the probability is lessened.
Brown is a player that can hit his value on single play, that should be clear for his fantasy managers. The issue with this match up is he likely will get less opportunities, which limits his big-play ability. Brown is a boom-or-bust fantasy asset, he is not someone with a safe fantasy-floor. You should sit Brown this week and await better game environments for him.
Start-Sit Week 9 — Tight End
Start – Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
The Falcons are the friendliest team when going up against opposing tight ends and have allowed 12.7-FPPG. Fant has seen 16 targets over the last two weeks, even with the emergence of backup tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. Atlanta’s best defensive trait is stopping the run. While they are not a great run-defense compared to other teams, the path to beat them normally lies through the air.
Looking at how this game could unfold, we have a 50 over-under with Atlanta being favored by -3.5. The opportunity for this game to open up is certainly there, but you never know what could happen with either of these teams. With Atlanta being an offensive-minded team and Denver being a defensive-minded team, it is hard to lean on the game-totals as insight into what could happen.
What seems to be certain is that Fant looks like a tight-end that you can confidently start in Week 9.
Start – Evan Engram (NYG, TE)
After becoming virtually impossible to rely on, Evan Engram has seen an increase in his role. Over the last two games, Engram has been targeted 19 times. Just for comparison, in weeks 5 and 6, Engram combined for five targets. One thing that Engram has yet to accomplish is catching a touchdown (he has one, lone rushing touchdown) which makes the probability for positive regression higher – meaning he should find the end zone through the air any week now.
Looking at this matchup, Washington is a good defensive front who can shutdown outside weapons. Their weakness lies in the middle of the field and they are allowing tight ends to average 10.1-FPPG, which is the seventh-most in the league. As for the game-script, this is a slow and paced down game. Traditionally, slower games have favored tight ends and this game fits the bill in terms of pace. Sportsbooks have this at a 41.5 over-under, with Washington being home favorites at -3.
In a slim and sinking tight end landscape, Engram is a player you can roster once again. The struggles during the early portions of the season seem to be behind him, and you should have faith in him as he heads into Week 9.
Sit – Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
While Dalton Shultz has marginally stayed fantasy relevant since the loss of Dak Prescott, Week 9 is one where he should be avoided.
Going up against a strong defense, both in real-life football and fantasy, Schultz will have to overcome a lot of adversity. The biggest issue is that there is not a clear starter at the quarterback position. What we know is that Andy Dalton is still unable to make his return, which will force Dallas into playing a quarterback below replacement level. Whoever that may be, it could get ugly very quickly for the quarterback.
Moving from the quarterback issues, this Steelers’ defense has only allowed 4.9-FPPG to opposing tight ends. This becomes a real issue, especially when you take into consideration that there is a high probability of turnovers and three-and-out drives. Both suppress fantasy points to pass-catchers like Schultz.
Schultz seems so unplayable this week, you should not even begin to consider him. Of course, there is a greater than 0-percent chance he could get you what you need, but I would take my shot on a waiver claim or free-agent pickup in Week 9.
Twitter QOTW:
@AndrewBrethauer asks: “Can you start Antonio Brown this week? I have him in three leagues. AB or Gaskin in flex… AB or Aiyuk or Chark or Kirk (1WR 1 Flex)… AB or Cooks (or Edmonds/CEH in flex)?
Oddly enough, we do have last year to look at and draw conclusions from. While it was a one-game sample size, it should be remembered that Antonio Brown finished 4/56/1 in his lone 2019 game with Tom Brady.
With clearly different circumstances, there are key differences for Brown last year compared to this year. The biggest being that he was the clear-cut WR1 in New England’s offense the day he stepped onto the field. With Brown being a member of the Bucs now, there are multiple weapons that Tom Brady can utilize. AB will have to compete against Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (once he is healthy) Scotty miller and even the trending Rob Gronkowski. Then there is the physical portion of the equation. This is a guy who has not played NFL football for over a year. How will he look his first week back?
If we get the AB from previous years, he is the best receiver out of the Bucs’ wide receiver core. The problem is that Tom Brady is going to throw it to whoever is open, and that creates variance. One week it could be Brown, and then the next two weeks it could go to Evans or Godwin.
Bringing this overview into a fantasy perspective, I see Brown being a top-end WR3. You should start Brown over Gaskin, and that is due to Gaskin being injured. Assuming that the 49ers play (COVID-19 watch) I would slightly favor Brandon Aiyuk given there is hardly any other pass catching options in San Fransisco, then AB followed by Chark and Kirk. Finally, I would happily start Edmonds over Brown, Cooks and CEH in Week 9.
